Greater Harrisburg's Community Magazine

Turned Out

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Turnout was sparse yesterday at polling stations throughout Harrisburg, including at the Neighborhood Center in Midtown.

As you may know, there’s an old adage in real estate about what’s most important: location, location, location.

In politics, the corollary might be: turnout, turnout, turnout.

Ideally, elections are supposed to measure the mood of the electorate, but most don’t. In off-year elections, particularly off-year, primary elections, only a small slice of the body politic is measured–the people who bother showing up to vote. As a candidate or a candidate-backer, you need to get your people to the polls. Otherwise, believe me, you will lose.

That point was proven yesterday in the Democratic primary for Harrisburg City Council. Hours before the polls closed, I told my wife that I believed the three council candidates endorsed by Mayor Eric Papenfuse (Cornelius Johnson, Jeffrey Baltimore and Westburn Majors) were likely to win and that incumbent Councilman Brad Koplinski–vocally denounced by Papenfuse–would probably lose his seat.

I’m no political genius, but I saw two trends emerge in the final week or so that convinced me that the mayor would have his way.

First, I assessed which candidates were running the best campaigns. In low-turnout elections, campaigns matter a lot, and no one ran a more organized, professional and energetic campaign than Johnson. For the past two months, Johnson systematically knocked on doors throughout the city, met with residents, and asked for their votes. At debates, he was personable, thoughtful and respectful. He raised money and smartly deployed it building up his name recognition through direct mail. As a result, the 26-year-old Johnson, virtually unknown to swaths of the city before the campaign, was the top vote-getter in the election.

Majors also ran a good campaign, though perhaps without the youthful vigor of Johnson, as did Destini Hodges, the winner of the two-year seat. The rest of the field ran campaigns that ranged from mediocre to practically invisible. Koplinski seemed to make a classic politician’s mistake, depending too much on the power of incumbency. As a result, he placed fourth in a field of eight (nine if you count Koscina Lowe), which is pretty awful for a sitting office-holder, especially one as widely known as Koplinski.

Secondly, I believed that a low turnout election would benefit Papenfuse’s slate. People need a reason to vote for a candidate–and some need a reason to show up to vote at all, particularly in a mid-May primary. Papenfuse provided that motivation and guidance for voters who like him or agree with his pro-business/balanced budget/Reed rollback approach to the office. Meanwhile, anti-Papenfuse sentiment in the city, while it exists, seems rather feeble and unorganized.

I’ll be honest–when Papenfuse announced on TheBurg Podcast a few weeks back that he was publicly supporting Johnson, Baltimore and Majors, I thought that a mayoral endorsement was a risky (if bold) move. I thought the same when he vocally urged residents to vote against Koplinski and when he became ever-more critical of council President Wanda Williams.

Papenfuse, though, has proven himself a savvy tactician. He gambled that, in a low turnout election, he could have outsized influence, perhaps even enough to sway the election–and that the louder and clearer he announced his choices, the better.

He was right, which I realized in something of an epiphany when I sauntered to the polls at around 2 p.m. yesterday and was just the 72nd person in my ward to vote. The turnout was so sparse that the punchy poll-workers actually applauded my arrival.

Assuming the election’s unofficial results hold (Koplinski is down just 18 votes from the final four-year slot), Papenfuse now must ensure that he retains the allegiance of his slate. Former Mayor Steve Reed was famous (perhaps infamous) for running a “Reed team,” only to lose their support as his erstwhile allies, once in office, increasingly recoiled at his dismissive, bullying attitude towards council.

Papenfuse is an ambitious man with a broad agenda. When the new council takes office next year, he will have an opportunity to push through a number of items that, so far, he’s been denied (sustainability officer, anyone?). However, to do so, he needs to keep his support on council in tact.

Johnson and Majors owe Papenfuse some measure of thanks for their wins. However, after an initial period of adjustment, nearly all new council members find their voices, priorities and preferred constituencies. Expect the same here. Come January, the mayor may have more allies on City Council, but he still will have to work hard–and wisely–to retain their support, to line up the votes he needs to pass his legislative agenda.

In the meantime, Papenfuse can take pleasure in knowing that he, again, has out-maneuvered his political foes. Perhaps he and his team understand something that oddly seems to be lost on other local politicians and their backers. Half-measures and wishful thinking don’t win elections. Effort does. Strategy does. Organization does. To win, you must do what needs to be done to turn out your voters.

 

 

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