Illustration by Rich Hauck
And then there were seven.
As I write this column, seven Democrats are locking horns, hoping to be the party’s nominee to battle entrenched Republican Rep. Scott Perry next year in the Harrisburg-centered 10th congressional district.
The stampede began back in April, when long-time city council member Shamaine Daniels announced her candidacy. It continued right through late October with a launch by the seventh hopeful, Blake Lynch, Harrisburg’s former police/community liaison.
If Daniels, the 2022 nominee, had hoped to shut down competition with an early entry, the plan didn’t work. But no matter. The more, the merrier, I say.
The pack of Dems, though, does indicate that some believe the 10th district might be ripe for the flipping. The logic goes something like this—the increasingly urban, diverse 10th is too moderate for a Freedom Caucus, MAGA-man like Perry.
Have we heard this before? Yes, we have. Insert Lucy and the football analogy here, as Perry is now running for a seventh term.
Regardless, one of these Democrats, come late April, will get a plurality of the 65,000 or so expected primary votes and thus a shot at the incumbent.
Back in 2022, with just two candidates in the primary, the calculation was quite different and relatively simple.
Daniels bested her sole primary opponent, Carlisle school board member Rick Coplen, by about 5 points in a race largely split along geographic lines—with the victor emerging from the more populous Harrisburg area. But with seven candidates and (in my opinion) no clear frontrunner, the calculation gets mighty complicated.
Yes, there still will be a geographic element at play, though I see both Daniels and Coplen, wisely, trying to expand their reach beyond their home turf. In addition, Lynch, a Dauphin County native, has strong connections in the Harrisburg area, including support among some top elected officials.
Two other candidates boast valuable, broad name recognition throughout the 10th. Before her recent retirement, former TV anchor Janelle Stelson beamed herself into central PA living rooms for decades, while irrepressible gadfly Gene Stilp has dragged his giant inflatable protest pig to the state Capitol for nearly as long.
The two remaining candidates, Mike O’Brien and Bob Forbes, both tout their military credentials as an edge in an eventual duel with Perry, a fellow veteran.
Faced with this fragmentation, what’s a Democrat to do?
My personal opinion is that campaigns matter a lot and that the race will prove this out. The eventual winner will be the person who has out-raised, out-organized, out-strategized and out-hustled the rest of the pack.
This may sound obvious. Of course, good campaigns should be rewarded. However, in my time in central PA, I’ve witnessed more poorly executed, phoned-in efforts than I can count. In fact, I’d say that’s been the rule not the exception.
With such a divided field, the victor likely will be the person who runs best, who gets into the faces of the most voters, most often, by any means necessary. This could be on the air, in print, on the web, through the mail, etc.
How’s your ground game? Call me old-fashioned, but I strongly believe in the power of personal, face-to-face contact: speeches, events—heck, just shaking hands at Harrisburg’s Broad Street Market or York’s Central Market every Saturday.
The effort will need to be relentless. The winner will be the person who’s turned his or her campaign into a grueling full-time job, weekends included, up to and including primary day, April 23.
I know that some of the candidates plan to do just that. A few have even hired professional campaign managers and staff. For south-central PA, that’s serious business indeed.
In the end, I wouldn’t be surprised if a few hundred votes separate the top few finishers. The winner will then need to turn on a dime, re-energize immediately, and make the same exhausting effort for six more months until the general election, because that’s the only way they’ll stand a chance against the deeply entrenched incumbent.
Honestly, if you can’t commit yourself so completely, you should drop out right now and save yourself months of wasted time and needless headaches. A half-hearted effort simply won’t cut it.
In a way, I regret that it’s come to this.
The American system of electioneering is out of control. Ideally, it shouldn’t take fanatical focus, resignation from full-time jobs, millions of dollars and a year of someone’s life for a chance to serve the public as a U.S. House member.
But, in 2024, in PA’s 10th congressional district, that’s where we are. Anyone can say they’re running, but only the most committed will win the prize.
Lawrance Binda is publisher and editor of TheBurg.
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