In the course of a long political season, outside events sometimes monkey with candidates’ best efforts to keep their campaigns on message and tightly controlled.
An extreme example is in New York, where another round of below-the-belt selfies seems finally to have sunk the campaign of Anthony Weiner, perhaps the Big Apple’s least camera-shy person.
On Monday, Harrisburg had its own major outside event, one that may override every other issue leading up to the Nov. 5 general election. Receiver William Lynch issued the “Harrisburg Strong Plan,” a comprehensive solution to the city’s financial crisis.
For months, Lynch had telegraphed that his plan was about to be filed with the Commonwealth Court, which is slated to hold a hearing on it on Sept. 19. However, the plan’s contents and creativity took many people by surprise, including, it seems, the city’s mayoral hopefuls.
At first, both Democrat Eric Papenfuse and Republican Dan Miller issued rather brief statements on the plan, but later expanded on their comments. Not surprisingly, Papenfuse gave it a qualified thumbs up, while Miller gave it a qualified thumbs down (here, here and here). Both men say they’d like more information as the process plays out, but the trend seems pretty clear and in keeping with their stances during the primary (Papenfuse, pro-receiver, anti-bankruptcy; Miller, anti-receiver, pro-bankruptcy).
When people step into a voting booth, many things cross their minds. Some vote on whether or not they like a person, which is a fair criteria, particularly in a small place like Harrisburg, where many voters know the candidates personally.
Other people may be influenced by what they’ve read in a newspaper or heard during a debate. In the mayoral debates to come, it will be interesting to see how the candidates respond to the inevitable charges that will be hurled at them. For instance, Papenfuse better have a good answer to the charge that he’s a lackey of big money, while Miller should brush up on his response that he’s a liberal Democrat opportunistically running as a Republican.
But, in the end, I suspect that the race will be won or lost on how the people of Harrisburg feel about the receiver’s plan come the first week of November. By then, the Commonwealth Court, almost certainly, will have approved it, and City Council likely will have passed a rash of enabling legislation. The plan should be well on its way to implementation.
If the general spirit has been uplifted by the plan, and it seems workable, Papenfuse should have a clear advantage in the general. On the other hand, Miller, who I believe starts this campaign at a disadvantage by losing in the primary and needing to run as a Republican, might be able to make up ground if the complex plan begins to unravel.
In the interim, Papenfuse will need to speak convincingly about why city residents will have to endure a multi-year increase in the earned income tax rate and a head-spinning parking meter fee hike. Miller will have to explain how municipal bankruptcy (a black box of unknowables that could take years to resolve at great cost) is a better deal for Harrisburg. He also needs to state clearly what, if anything, he could and would do to change Harrisburg Strong upon becoming mayor in January.
At the moment, my sense is that most residents are willing to give Lynch the benefit of the doubt. They’re tired of the dysfunction of the city and the disorder to their lives. Meanwhile, they’ve largely become (unhappily) accustomed to higher taxes as a price to resolve the years-long financial crisis. More than anything, they want a new beginning, a new era for the city and for themselves. That feeling, though, could change fast. If the plan gets bogged down or, worse, begins to fall apart, hope quickly could turn to anger and despair.
The candidates are staking their positions in this battle, giving voters a distinct choice. However, events beyond their control ultimately may decide who is right — and may well determine who will be the next mayor of Harrisburg.
Note: Independent Nevin Mindlin also expects to run for Harrisburg mayor. You can read his position on the Harrisburg Strong Plan here. His status as a candidate is unclear after a Dauphin County judge recently threw out his nominating petition. The hearing on his appeal is slated for Sept. 12 in Commonwealth Court. If he does not succeed in his appeal, he has said he may mount a write-in campaign.
